Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Red states = Poor (Welfare) States

America’s Poorest States

September 20, 2012 by 247Editors LINK
Source: Wikimedia Commons / Creative Commons
 
Median household income in the United States declined for the second straight year, according to data released from the U.S. Census Bureau today. Income was $50,502 in 2011, more than 8% below the 2007 pre-recession peak.
While the trend is generally down, some states fared far better than others. Median income ranged from $36,919 in Mississippi to $70,004 in Maryland, positions both states have held since before the recession. Based on the 2011 Census Bureau American Community Survey, 24/7 Wall St. identified the states with the highest and lowest median household income.
Between 2010 and 2011, Vermont was the only state where median income increased. Income fell in 18 states and remained statistically unchanged in 31.  In Hawaii, which remained one of the wealthiest states in the country, median income decreased by more than $3,000 between 2010 and 2011 alone.
Not surprisingly, poverty rates continued to be high. The percentage of Americans living below the poverty line increased in 17 states between 2010 and 2011, the third consecutive increase for ten of these states. Of the states with the lowest income, eight had among the 10 highest poverty rates. Mississippi had the highest poverty rate in the country, at 22.6% of residents, compared to the national rate of 15.9%.
The poorest states in the country are almost entirely found in the South, with the exception of New Mexico. The wealthiest states can be found all across the country, including three in New England, four in the Mid-Atlantic, and two outside the contiguous 48 states.
Of course, not all residents of the wealthiest states earn as much as the median. According to the Census Bureau’s Gini Coefficient, which measures income inequality, there was a significant increase in the divide between the rich and poor in 20 states. The measure remained unchanged in the rest.
Though income inequality affects rich and poor states alike, the poorest states struggle with it most. Inequality was high in only three rich states: California, Massachusetts and Connecticut. Meanwhile, with the exception of West Virginia, all of the poorest states had among the highest income inequality scores, with six in the top 15.
In an interview with 24/7 Wall St., Brookings Institution fellow Elizabeth Kneebone explained that income inequality at a state level is often influenced by differences between the state’s high- and low-income cities and between urban and rural areas. “These are metropolitan economies that drive a lot of these [state] trends.” This was especially the case in California, where the Bay Area’s wealthy suburbs have incomes fueled by the tech industry and the low-income areas in other parts of the states are agricultural-based economies.
At least one positive development involves health insurance coverage, which increased in 37 states. While the poorest states improved, coverage remained relatively low. Three of the poorest states were among the 10 with the lowest coverage. In New Mexico, nearly 20% were not insured in 2011, much higher than the 15.1% national average. In the wealthiest states, coverage was among the highest, with four states having greater than 90% insured.
While most of the states with the lowest incomes suffer from weak economies, unemployment was not a significant problem. Only two states were among the worst 10 for unemployment in 2011. In fact, five of the worst-off states had unemployment rates lower than the national rate of 8.9% last year. In Oklahoma, one of the poorest states, unemployment was 6.2%. In the states with the highest median incomes, the results were similarly varied.
According to Kneebone, it is not a surprise that unemployment and income appear unrelated.  ”Earnings for middle and lower-wage workers have fallen or stagnated over time,” Kneebone explained. “So you can have a situation where jobs are being created … but the types of jobs matter. If those are jobs that pay low wages, even if you’re working full time, that might not be enough to lift you above the poverty line.”
To identify the states with the highest and lowest median household income, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed state data on income, poverty, and health insurance from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2011 American Community Survey (ACS). Based on Census treatment, median household income for all years is adjusted for inflation. We also reviewed unemployment data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and additional 2011 ACS data on individual cities. Because the cost of living has a direct bearing income, 24/7 Wall St. considered cost of living data for Q4 2011 from the Council for Community and Economic Research.
These are America’s poorest states.
America’s Poorest States
10. Oklahoma 
> Median household income: $43,225
> Population: 3,791,508 (23rd lowest)
> Unemployment rate: 6.2% (8th lowest)
> Pct. below poverty line: 17.2% (16th highest)
Oklahoma remarkably low unemployment rate of 6.2% for a state that is among the nation’s poorest. The poverty rate of 17.2% has inched up each year from the 2008 rate of 15.9%. The low median income suggests a need for higher paying jobs as Oklahoma relies heavily on agricultural production. Also, government and military, which tend to be low-paying jobs, account for the highest percentage of jobs in the state. But Oklahoma is also a major producer of oil and gas. Growth in the energy sector, which tends to pay more, would help improve on Oklahoma’s median income of $43,225.
9. South Carolina 
> Median household income: $42,367
> Population: 4,679,230 (24th highest)
> Unemployment rate: 10.3% (8th highest)
> Pct. below poverty line: 18.9% (9th highest)
South Carolina has been hit harder than many states by the recent economic downturn. The state’s sizable tourism industry has slowed as families cut back on vacations. The state’s 10.3% unemployment rate in 2011 was well above the 8.9% national rateSouth Carolina’s poverty rate of 18.9% was the ninth highest in the U.S. and significantly higher than the national rate of 15.9%.Moreover, approximately6.5% of families made less than $10,000 a year, the fifth highest proportion in the country. Meanwhile, only 2.9% of families made more than $200,000 a year, the sixth-lowest rate in the country.
Also Read: The World’s Best (and Worst) Economies
8. New Mexico 
> Median household income: $41,963
> Population: 2,082,224 (15th lowest)
> Unemployment rate: 7.4% (18th lowest)
> Pct. below poverty line: 21.5% (2nd highest)
Last year, 7.2% of families in New Mexico earned less than $10,000, a larger proportion than in any state but Mississippi and Louisiana. In addition, 21.5% of residents lived below the poverty line, well above the national rate of 15.9%. As a result of poverty and limited job benefits, many New Mexicans cannot afford health insurance. Last year, 19.8% of the state’s residents were uninsured. This was significantly higher than the national rate of 15.1% even though the cost of healthcare in New Mexico was slightly below the national average.
7. Louisiana 
> Median household income: $41,734
> Population: 4,574,836 (25th highest)
> Unemployment rate: 7.3% (16th lowest)
> Pct. below poverty line: 20.4% (3rd highest)
Louisiana is located at the center of the poorest region in the country — the Deep South along the gulf coast. When Hurricane Katrina struck the region in 2005, the southern part of the state was decimated, particularly the city of New Orleans. Six years later, the city was still recovering with almost 17% of families earning less than $10,000 per year, more than triple the national rate of 5.1%. By many measures, conditions are actually getting worse in the state. As of 2011, for the first time since Katrina, more than one in five residents lived below the poverty line, only slightly better than Mississippi and New Mexico. Louisiana’s median income fell by more than the country as a whole, falling more than $2,000 between 2010 and 2011.
6. Tennessee 
> Median household income: $41,693
> Population:  6,403,353 (17th highest)
> Unemployment rate: 9.2% (16th highest)
> Pct. below poverty line: 18.3% (12th highest)
In Tennessee some 6.1% of families, or about a third of families in poverty, made less than $10,000 in 2012, a percentage point higher than the national figure. Poverty in many of Tennessee’s largest cities is even worse than the state as a whole. In Memphis, the state’s largest city, 27.2% of the population lived below the poverty line, including 13.1% of households earning less than $10,000 a year. In Chattanooga, 28.7% of the population lived below the poverty line, including 16.3% of households earning less than $10,000 annually. While the state’s median income was lower than most, Tennessee had the second-lowest overall cost of living in and the lowest cost of living for housing among all states in 2011.
5. Alabama 
> Median household income: $41,415
> Population: 4,802,740 (23rd highest)
> Unemployment rate: 9% (18th highest)
> Pct. below poverty line: 19% (7th highest)
In 2011, Alabama’s median income was more than $9,000 below the nation’s median income, while 6.4% of families lived off less than $10,000 a year — higher than in all but five states. For the second year in a row, Alabama’s poverty rate was 19%, remaining more than three percentage points above the national rate. Despite struggling with poverty, only 14.3% of Alabamians did not have health insurance last year — slightly better than the national figure of 15.1%. It is likely that Alabama’s cheap health care–the least expensive in the country for the fourth quarter of 2011–resulted in more insured residents.According to Gallup, since August of 2011 almost 23% of state residents reported not having enough money to buy food at least once.
4. Kentucky 
> Median household income: $41,141
> Population: 4,369,356 (25th lowest)
> Unemployment rate: 9.5% (13th highest)
> Pct. below poverty line: 19.1% (5th highest)
Kentucky’s unemployment rate of 9.5%, while not as high as states such as South Carolina and Mississippi, was well above the national rate of 8.9%. The employment rate will likely stay high in the near future as mining, a major industry in Kentucky, has declined in the past year due to a drop in natural gas prices. Severe poverty plagues the state, as 6.9% of families earned less than $10,000 in 2011, the fourth lowest of all states. Meanwhile, a mere 3% of Kentucky families earned more than $200,000 a year, the seventh-lowest rate in the country.  Fortunately for those with lower incomes, Kentucky has the fourth-lowest cost of living in the U.S., including the second-lowest cost of living for groceries.
Click here to see how all fifty states do with 24/7 Wall St.’s new interactive state tool.

3. Arkansas 
> Median household income: $38,758
> Population: 2,937,979 (19th lowest)
> Unemployment rate: 8% (tied-25th lowest)
> Pct. below poverty line: 19.5% (4th highest)
While the national median household income fell to $50,502 in 2011, Arkansas was just one of three states where median income remained below $40,000 for the year. Despite an unemployment rate of 8% in 2011, nearly one percentage point below the national rate, the 19.5% of families lived below the poverty line, one of the nation’s highest rates. Poverty was slightly less of a problem in Little Rock, the state’s largest city, which had a 16.4% poverty rate and a median income of $40,976. Despite having the third-lowest cost of health care nationwide at the end of 2011, 17.1% of residents lived without health insurance last year–well above the national figure of 15.1%.
2. West Virginia 
> Median household income: $38,482
> Population: 1,855,364 (14th lowest)
> Unemployment rate: 8% (tied-25th lowest)
> Pct. below poverty line: 18.6% (10th highest)
West Virginia’s median income of $38,482 was well off the median income of $40,093 in 2007. The state’s unemployment rate of 8% was well below the 8.9% nationwide. But, like Kentucky, a softening mining sector in 2012 could weaken West Virginia’s economy. The proportion of West Virginia residents without health insurance grew 4.9%, the third-largest increase in the U.S. Fortunately for cash-strapped residents, although the state’s overall cost of living is in the middle of the pack compared to all other states, the cost of groceries is the third lowest in the country.
1. Mississippi 
> Median household income: $36,919
> Population: 2,978,512 (20th lowest)
> Unemployment rate: 10.7% (4th highest)
> Pct. below poverty line: 22.6% (the highest)
The median income of the poorest state in the country, Mississippi, was just slightly less than 53% of the median income of Maryland, the richest state. Mississippi’s median income–like many states– fell each year between 2008 and 2011, dropping $2,677 during that time. Not only did Mississippi have the highest poverty rate in the country, but 7.8% of Mississippi families made less than $10,000 in 2011, which was also the lowest rate in the country. While unemployment declined in most states between 2010 and 2011, Mississippi’s actually rose 0.2 percentage points, one of only two states to see an increase in unemployment.
Michael B. Sauter, Samuel Weigley, Brian Zajac and Alexander E. M. Hess

Friday, October 26, 2012

Foreign business execs prefer Obama


Obama better for world economy: poll

LONDON (Reuters) - Twice as many business executives around the world say the global economy will prosper better if incumbent President Barack Obama wins the next election than if his Republican challenger Mitt Romney does, a poll showed on Friday.
 
Democrat Obama was chosen by 42.7 percent in the 1,700 respondent poll, compared with 20.5 percent for Romney. The rest said "neither".

The result was different among respondents in the United States, where a slim majority thought Romney would be better for their businesses than Obama.

Obama maintains a seven-point lead over Romney among registered voters in the race for the November 6 presidential election, despite the fact Americans are increasingly pessimistic about the future, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last week.

The FT poll was conducted before Romney picked Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan as his vice presidential running mate at the weekend, a move that could dramatically shift the election debate between two sharply contrasting views of government spending and debt.

Romney's choice for running mate gave him no immediate boost to his White House prospects, a Reuters/Ipsos poll suggested on Monday.
(Reporting by Andy Bruce. Editing by Jeremy Gaunt.)

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Stop Oil Speculation


OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR
Ban 'Pure' Speculators of Oil Futures
Hieronymus
By JOSEPH P. KENNEDY II
New York Times LINK
Published: April 11, 2012
Boston
THE drastic rise in the price of oil and gasoline is in part the result of forces beyond our control: as high-growth countries like China and India increase the demand for petroleum, the price will go up.
But there are factors contributing to the high price of oil that we can do something about. Chief among them is the effect of "pure" speculators - investors who buy and sell oil futures but never take physical possession of actual barrels of oil. These middlemen add little value and lots of cost as they bid up the price of oil in pursuit of financial gain. They should be banned from the world's commodity exchanges, which could drive down the price of oil by as much as 40 percent and the price of gasoline by as much as $1 a gallon.
Today, speculators dominate the trading of oil futures. According to Congressional testimony by the commodities specialist Michael W. Masters in 2009, the oil futures markets routinely trade more than one billion barrels of oil per day. Given that the entire world produces only around 85 million actual "wet" barrels a day, this means that more than 90 percent of trading involves speculators' exchanging "paper" barrels with one another.
Because of speculation, today's oil prices of about $100 a barrel have become disconnected from the costs of extraction, which average $11 a barrel worldwide. Pure speculators account for as much as 40 percent of that high price, according to testimony that Rex Tillerson, the chief executive of ExxonMobil, gave to Congress last year. That estimate is bolstered by a recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Many economists contend that speculation on oil futures is a good thing, because it increases liquidity and better distributes risk, allowing refiners, producers, wholesalers and consumers (like airlines) to "hedge" their positions more efficiently, protecting themselves against unseen future shifts in the price of oil.
But it's one thing to have a trading system in which oil industry players place strategic bets on where prices will be months into the future; it's another thing to have a system in which hedge funds and bankers pump billions of purely speculative dollars into commodity exchanges, chasing a limited number of barrels and driving up the price. The same concern explains why the United States government placed limits on pure speculators in grain exchanges after repeated manipulations of crop prices during the Great Depression.
The market for oil futures differs from the markets for other commodities in the sheer size and scope of trading and in the impact it has on a strategically important resource. There is a fundamental difference between oil futures and, say, orange juice futures. If orange juice gets too pricey (perhaps because of a speculative bubble), we can easily switch to apple juice. The same does not hold with oil. Higher oil prices act like a choke-chain on the economy, dragging down profits for ordinary businesses and depressing investment.
When I started buying and selling oil more than 30 years ago for my nonprofit organization, speculation wasn't a significant aspect of the industry. But in 1991, just a few years after oil futures began trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, Goldman Sachs made an argument to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that Wall Street dealers who put down big bets on oil should be considered legitimate hedgers and granted an exemption from regulatory limits on their trades.
The commission granted an exemption that ultimately allowed Goldman Sachs to process billions of dollars in speculative oil trades. Other exemptions followed. By 2008, eight investment banks accounted for 32 percent of the total oil futures market. According to a recent analysis by McClatchy, only about 30 percent of oil futures traders are actual oil industry participants.
Congress was jolted into action when it learned of the full extent of Commodity Futures Trading Commission's lax oversight. In the wake of the economic crisis, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform law required greater trading transparency and limited speculators who lacked a legitimate business-hedging purpose to positions of no greater than 25 percent of the futures market. 
This is an important step, but limiting speculators in the oil markets doesn't go far enough. Even with the restrictions currently in place, those eight investment banks alone can severely inflate the price of oil. Federal legislation should bar pure oil speculators entirely from commodity exchanges in the United States. And the United States should use its clout to get European and Asian markets to follow its lead, chasing oil speculators from the world's commodity markets.
Eliminating pure speculation on oil futures is a question of fairness. The choice is between a world of hedge-fund traders who make enormous amounts of money at the expense of people who need to drive their cars and heat their homes, and a world where the fundamentals of life - food, housing, health care, education and energy - remain affordable for all.
Joseph P. Kennedy II, a former United States representative from Massachusetts, is the founder, chairman and president of Citizens Energy Corporation.
Copyright 2012 The New York Times Company

Paul Ryan reads the Ayn Rand and the Bible


Paul Ryan Suddenly Does Not Embrace Ayn Rand's Teachings

Jennifer Benedry
Huffington Post LINK
 04/27/2012 


WASHINGTON -- Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) tried to send the message this week that, contrary to "urban legend," he is not obsessed with philosopher and author Ayn Rand.

"I reject her philosophy," Ryan told National Review on Thursday. "It's an atheist philosophy. It reduces human interactions down to mere contracts and it is antithetical to my worldview. If somebody is going to try to paste a person's view on epistemology to me, then give me Thomas Aquinas. Don’t give me Ayn Rand."
Best known for her novels "The Fountainhead" and "Atlas Shrugged," Rand advocated a philosophy that emphasizes the individual over the collective, and viewed capitalism as the only system truly based on the protection of the individual. She has been a significant influence on libertarians and conservatives.
Ryan, whose name has been floated as a possible running mate for GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney, appeared to be distancing himself from Rand in response to a public letter he received this week from nearly 90 faculty and administrators at Georgetown University. In their letter, they criticize him for misusing Catholic social teaching in defending his budget, which hurts the poor by proposing significant cuts to anti-hunger programs, slashing Pell Grants for low-income students and calling for a replacement of Medicare with a voucher-like system. They also invoke Rand's name.
"As scholars, we want to join the Catholic bishops in pointing out that his budget has a devastating impact on programs for the poor," said Jesuit Father Thomas J. Reese, one of the organizers of the letter. "Your budget appears to reflect the values of your favorite philosopher, Ayn Rand, rather than the Gospel of Jesus Christ. Her call to selfishness and her antagonism toward religion are antithetical to the Gospel values of compassion and love."
But any urban legend about Ryan's affinity for Rand surely started with Ryan himself, who, prior to this week, had no qualms about gushing about Rand's influence on his guiding principles.
"The reason I got involved in public service, by and large, if I had to credit one thinker, one person, it would be Ayn Rand," Ryan said during a 2005 event honoring Rand in Washington, D.C., the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported in April 2009.
During the 2005 gathering, Ryan told the audience, "Almost every fight we are involved in here on Capitol Hill ... is a fight that usually comes down to one conflict -- individualism versus collectivism." The event was hosted by The Atlas Society, which prominently features a photo of Rand on its website and describes itself as a group that "promotes open Objectivism: the philosophy of reason, achievement, individualism, and freedom."
Ryan also said during a 2003 interview with the Weekly Standard, "I give out 'Atlas Shrugged' as Christmas presents, and I make all my interns read it. Well ... I try to make my interns read it.” He noted that he "looked into" Rand's work when he was younger, but reiterated that he is a Christian and reads the Bible often.
In 2009, Ryan posted two videos on his Facebook page raving about the importance of Rand's views.
"If 'Atlas Shrugged' author Ayn Rand were alive today, here's the urgent message I think she'd be conveying," Ryan wrote alongside the first video, titled "Ayn Rand's relevance in 2009."
He says in the video:
What's unique about what's happening today in government, in the world, in America, is it's as if we're living in an Ayn Rand novel right now. I think Ayn Rand did the best job of anybody to build the moral case for capitalism. And that morality of capitalism is under assault. And we are going to replace it with a crony capitalism, collectivist, government-run system which is creeping its way into government. And so if Ayn Rand were here today, I think she would do a great job in showing us just how wrong what government is doing is. Not the quantitative analysis, not the numbers, but the morality of what is wrong with what government is doing today.
In the second video, titled "Ayn Rand & 2009 America, Part 2," Ryan says it doesn't surprise him that sales of "The Fountainhead" and "Atlas Shrugged" have "surged" since President Barack Obama took office.
"It's that kind of thinking, that kind of writing, that is sorely needed right now. And I think a lot of people would observe that we are living in an Ayn Rand novel right now, metaphorically speaking," Ryan says. "The attack on Democratic capitalism, on individualism and freedom in America is an attack on the moral foundation of America. And Ayn Rand more than anyone else did a fantastic job of explaining the morality of capitalism, the morality of individualism. This, to me, is what matters most."
Some of Ryan's critics took a shot at him for suddenly distancing himself from Rand.
"Not pure enough on entitlement cuts @philipaklein @robertcostaNRO Paul Ryan on Ayn Rand: 'I reject her philosophy,'" Austan Goolsbee, the former chairman of Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, tweeted Thursday.
UPDATE: 5:14 p.m. -- Ryan spokesman Kevin Seifert downplayed the lawmaker's apparent change of tune on Rand.
"I wouldn't make too much of this one way or another. Congressman Ryan was not 'distancing himself' from Rand, merely correcting several false storylines that are out there, such as the myth that he requires all of his staffers to read Atlas Shrugged. Saying he 'rejects Ayn Rand's philosophy' was simply meant to correct a popular falsehood that Congressman Ryan is an Objectivist -- he isn't now and never claimed to be," Seifert said in a statement to The Huffington Post.

Obama, the tax-break president



From Obama, the Tax Cut Nobody Heard Of



HUNTERSVILLE, N.C. — What if a president cut Americans’ income taxes by $116 billion and nobody noticed?
It is not a rhetorical question. At Pig Pickin’ and Politickin’, a barbecue-fed rally organized here last week by a Republican women’s club, a half-dozen guests were asked by a reporter what had happened to their taxes since President Obama took office.
“Federal and state have both gone up,” said Bob Paratore, 59, from nearby Charlotte, echoing the comments of others.
After further prodding — including a reminder that a provision of the stimulus bill had cut taxes for 95 percent of working families by changing withholding rates — Mr. Paratore’s memory was jogged.
“You’re right, you’re right,” he said. “I’ll be honest with you: it was so subtle that personally, I didn’t notice it.”
Few people apparently did.
In a troubling sign for Democrats as they head into the midterm elections, their signature tax cut of the past two years, which decreased income taxes by up to $400 a year for individuals and $800 for married couples, has gone largely unnoticed.
In a New York Times/CBS News Poll last month, fewer than one in 10 respondents knew that the Obama administration had lowered taxes for most Americans. Half of those polled said they thought that their taxes had stayed the same, a third thought that their taxes had gone up, and about a tenth said they did not know. As Thom Tillis, a Republican state representative, put it as the dinner wound down here, “This was the tax cut that fell in the woods — nobody heard it.”
Actually, the tax cut was, by design, hard to notice. Faced with evidence that people were more likely to save than spend the tax rebate checks they received during the Bush administration, the Obama administration decided to take a different tack: it arranged for less tax money to be withheld from people’s paychecks.
They reasoned that people would be more likely to spend a small, recurring extra bit of money that they might not even notice, and that the quicker the money was spent, the faster it would cycle through the economy.
Economists are still measuring how stimulative the tax cut was. But the hard-to-notice part has succeeded wildly. In a recent interview, President Obama said that structuring the tax cuts so that a little more money showed up regularly in people’s paychecks “was the right thing to do economically, but politically it meant that nobody knew that they were getting a tax cut.”
“And in fact what ended up happening was six months into it, or nine months into it,” the president said, “people had thought we had raised their taxes instead of cutting their taxes.”
There are plenty of explanations as to why many taxpayers did not feel richer when the cuts kicked in, giving typical families an extra $65 a month. Some people were making less money to begin with, as businesses cut back. Others saw their take-home pay shrink as the amounts deducted for health insurance rose.
And taxpayers in more than 30 states saw their state taxes rise, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
That is what happened here in North Carolina. The Treasury Department estimated that the federal tax cut would put $1.7 billion back in the hands of North Carolina taxpayers this year. Last year, though, North Carolina, facing a large budget shortfall, raised a variety of state taxes by roughly a billion dollars.
“It was a wash,” said Mr. Tillis, the state representative.
The guests at the Pig Pickin’ rally here could rattle off the names of the House speaker and the Senate majority leader with ease, if with disdain, and were up on many of the political controversies of the day. They studied the campaign fliers at their tables, and pocketed the 1.5-ounce jars of strawberry preserves with special labels urging them to vote for Judge Bill Constangy for Superior Court (“Preserving Justice,” the labels read).
Many volunteered that they thought the Bush tax cuts should be extended for all taxpayers, even for the wealthy ones whom Mr. Obama would like to exclude. But few had heard that there had also been Obama tax cuts — which will also expire next year unless extended, but have generated far less public debate.
Bob Deaton, 73, who wore a “Fair Tax” baseball cap, was surprised to hear that there were tax cuts in the $787 billion stimulus bill, which was wildly unpopular with many at the rally even though roughly a third of it was in the form of tax cuts.
“Tax cuts?” he asked. “Where were the tax cuts?”
Ron Julian, 50, a Huntersville town commissioner, said he thought his taxes had gone up under Mr. Obama. And Mr. Paratore, a former Hearst executive, said he might have noticed the tax cuts if his paycheck had jumped more in the weeks before he retired last year: “I couldn’t even tell you what it was, to be honest with you.”
The Obama administration wants to extend the little-noticed tax cut next year. Jason Furman, the deputy director of the National Economic Council, said the administration still believes that changing the withholdings was a more effective form of stimulus than sending out rebate checks would have been.
“In retrospect, we think that judgment was right,” he said. “It’s harder to predict what’s good for politics. Ultimately, the best thing for politics is going to be helping the economy.”
But at least one prominent economist is questioning whether the method really was more effective. Joel B. Slemrod, a professor of economics at the University of Michigan, analyzed consumer surveys after the last rebate checks were sent out in 2008 by the Bush administration, and after this tax cut, called Making Work Pay, went into effect under the Obama administration.
After the 2008 rebates, he found that about a quarter of the households surveyed said they would use the money primarily to increase their spending. After the Obama tax cut took effect, he said, only 13 percent said they would use the money primarily to increase their spending. The Obama administration believes that people did spend the money, and cites analyses calling the cut one of the more effective forms of stimulus.
Mr. Slemrod said it was not unheard of for voters to miss tax cuts. Just a few years after a 1986 overhaul of the tax system made significant cuts to most people’s taxes, he said, a survey asked people what had happened to their taxes. “Most people didn’t answer that they went down,” he said.